Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Colloquium on Global Economic Downturn: Recommendations for India's Economic Growth

On 29th Dec 2008 here at SIBM Bangalore we had a superab event, infact a Colloquium organised with big efforts from our Director Prof Pankaj Gupta. The guest speakers were "Dr. S.P. Kothari", Managing Director & Global Head of Equity Research, Barclays Global Investors and also "Prof. Prakash G. Apte" formerly, Director IIM, Bangalore. Both the speakers gave a beautiful insight on what should be done by India to outgrow everyone in present downturn. Well I would like to point out some points that I noted in the speech.

First thing pointed out to us was that India's Literacy rate is 61% which is low when compared to economies like China, Mexico and S. Korea which stands at 91%, 91% & 98% respectively.  Well this also goes with the fact that average per capita income of an Indian is $960 as compared to  China, Mexico and S. Korea which stands at $2500, $8120, $19900 respectively. There we rightly see the difference as why we are falling behind in literacy rate, we have a large amount of population which have compartively lower income than other economies. Well one way we can turn this economy around is by having good literacy rate. We gotta see the cycle, literate skill labour means that they earn higher salaries, they not only save more but also spend more and this adds to our economy.

So the problem has been pin pointed, we need to get children educated atleast till primary level. But isn't that what our government is trying to do for years. We do hear of loads of investment being put into building schools for primary education but what is missing. Yup you might have got it right, how and why are this low income parents going to send there children to school. They have mountain of things to worry as where they will get there next meal from. What would persuade them to send thier children to school. 

One briliant proposal stated in the speech by Dr. Kothari was to give this parent Financial Incentives so that they would send there children to school and complete the education. Now hold on to your thoughts we need a proper organisation and clear set of rules or else this might turn out into a population explosion disaster. Clear rules for the eligibility creteria about the number of children the parents have and based on child's performance. Well, we are basically using financial incentives as a means of altering human behaviour.

Second point is goverance, in india the average population in every state goes from 77 Million to 166 Million, now these are big numbers considering the size of our country. There are too many people to manage by one single government. Consider one leader and managing and making policies for about 150 Million people. This person for some purposes have to consult to the center for permissions of some policies. By the time the policy is in place it might be too late. The solution provided here was further dividing the states into smaller states so that it is easier to manage each one of them. I would rather not agree with that but I would like to say here is every state must be given complete power to protect and manage itself. Consider the recent mumbai attacks, god knows why the NSG commanders were given late orders to march in. Bravo to the NSG for there bavery and superab job. But why can't every state have thier own right to protect themselves by having thier own defense forces ready for any moment. So next time if it happens the state is ready. Other aspect is that state can concentrate and compete more in increasing the literacy rate. If the states also get financial incentives for thier progress we have running economy.

Third point is Investment, we need investment in infrastructure e.g. Road, Hospitals, Schools, Colleges, Playground and many more. This investment should account to 35% of the economy's GDP. Right now we have some investment which is 22% of GDP. Another important point is need for FDI. India has net FDI of only $58 Billion as compared to Mexico and China which have $222 Billion and $665 Billion respectively. How can we attract more FDI in our country is the big Question. Well many would say that government investing correctly in infrastructure would help but that is what our government has being doing. Maybe there is some shortfall some where which we seriously need to have a look at.

Well I would now end this long post, I just wanted to type out the thought process which was initiated in the event. Now is the time to get things done for better future.

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